CA Open Primary Bodes Change in Balance of Power–Allan Hoffenblum’s analysis on probable and likely winners and losers

Tuesday Oct 9, 2012, at 10 AM PT, Martha Montelongo, with John Seiler, managing editor at CalWatchDog.com, and Ben Boychuk, Associate Editor with City Journal welcome Allan Hoffenblum, Publisher of the California Target Book, owner of Allan Hoffenblum & Associates and contributor to Fox & Hounds Daily.

Due to redistricting and the new top two Open Primary, there will be more competitive races for congress and the state legislature this November than we have seen in this state in over a decade. L.A. Times reports “Recent developments put the party within reach of gaining the two seats it needs for a two-thirds majority in the Legislature’s upper house.”

Allan Hoffenblum,  publisher of the California Target Book, wrote a four-part series for Fox & Hounds Daily, describing where those competitive races will be.   We’ll talk Hoffenblum about what these developments mean for the people and the politics of CA.

We’ll ask him what he thinks about the propositions on the ballot too.  CalWatchDog has a lot of coverage on the initiatives, with two propositions, Prop 30 and Prop 32 testing the political grip the special interests and public employee unions have on CA’s voters and their support.

Target Races: 

Part One: State Assembly

• Part Two: State Senate 

• Part Three: Congress 

Part Four: Same Party Runoff

Related Links:
A Democratic supermajority for California’s Senate?
Recent developments put the party within reach of gaining the two seats it needs for a two-thirds majority in the Legislature’s upper house.
October 06, 2012|By Patrick McGreevy, Los Angeles Times

Democrats May Get Two-thirds Majority in California Senate
October 8th, 2012 | by Michael Burg | DailyPolitical.com

Crazifornia: Moneyball time in Sacramento
Oct. 8, 2012 | By Laer Pearce | CalWatchDog.com

“…Should Prop 30 fail in November, Brown will have a chance to start playing Moneyball. Here are some ideas for the manager of the major league Sacramento Spenders…”

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Repost from Fox & Hound Daily: Why The Sky Is Falling on The CA Republican Party

[I share this because this past weekend at the 6th annual Congreso Latino, if you wanted to know what fueled this gathering, look at the song and poetry recital called the Floricanto on Saturday night. The headline for it was SB1070 & Texas HB12. There was also talk about State Rep. Virgil Peck’s (R-Tyro) comment suggesting it would be a good idea to control illegal immigration the way the feral hog population has been controlled—with hunters shooting immigrants from helicopters.
Today, CA Assemblyman Tom Donnelley’s office released a press release (To download PDF of the Press release Click here ), announcing a rally at the Capitol on Monday, April 4th at 2 PM on the steps of the Capitol in support of his Assembly Bill 26, the Secure Immigration and Enforcement Act (otherwise known as SEIA) modeled after the Arizona Law.
In the press release, Donnelly says “We need every freedom-loving citizen to show up on Monday, April 4th at 2 PM on the steps of the Capitol to support my Assembly Bill 26,…” Well, this freedom lover thinks not!]

Allan Hoffenblum's pictureBy Allan Hoffenblum

Publisher of the California Target Book and owner of Allan Hoffenblum & Associates
Tue, March 29th, 2011

In August 2009, I wrote a column for Fox & Hounds entitled “Reach out, Republicans, or lose!”
  
In that article, I wrote that California Republicans can yell and scream all they want on the issues of taxes, socialize medicine, and corporate bailouts. But unless the California Republican Party is able to persuade significant numbers of Latinos, Asians and other people of color to register in their party and/or vote for their candidates, it will not elect a governor or any statewide official in 2010 and could very well lose additional seats in congress and the state legislature.

…”Maria Elena Durazo, the head of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, heard this noise too and had the Federation conduct six focus groups composed of registered Latino voters who had cast ballots in the 2008 presidential election but did not always vote in gubernatorial election years…the number one issue on the minds of the overwhelming majority of those Latino voters was the Arizona anti-immigration bill.  In fact, more focus-group participants knew the number of the Arizona bill – SB1070 – than the names of California’s two major candidates for governor.
And the issue was NOT illegal immigration, which is what most non-Latino observers believe, but racial profiling.  The fear that Latinos as a group will be “singled out” by law enforcement, schools, stores and employers because of their skin color.
In other words, the fear of racism.  And the political party Latinos most identified with support of the Arizona law is the Republican Party. And this fear could lead to some serious losses for Republicans in 2012.”

 
Click here to read the article

Sat Feb 20, 2010: Law Enforcement Agents for Ending Prohibition & CA’s Republican Party Registration Numbers Drop Further. How to Stop the Bleeding:



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LEAP‘s Kyle Kazan on U.S. and Mexico’s Drug War, Mexico’s instability, and our U.S.-Mexico Border violence. Is it time to end Prohibition in the U.S.?

Also, is a state with a large and growing Latino population condemned to a liberal/leftist political balance of power?
(Update, Feb 20, 2010, I didn’t get to this topic today. The War on Drugs, or Prohibition generated a lot of passion and discussion and took the hour. I’ll visit this topic next week.)
Last week, Allan Hoffenblum published a follow up to his post from a year ago on Fox and Hound. He called it California’s Plummeting GOP Registration-Part 2. The GOP voter registration numbers in CA, have declined even further, since his original post on this topic a year ago.

With a leftist dominated Legislature and Congressional delegation, and growing percentage of young Latino voters, is there hope for change to the political balance of power in CA? Latino voters have voted Republican in significant numbers in the past. Why have their numbers dropped off so dramatically in the Republican Party? Can there be a shift in the political balance of power in CA without winning 40 to 45% of the Latino vote?

Can Latino voters be won over, in large enough numbers to make a difference? If so, how?
Here’s a little inspiration and example: I love George Strait. He’s a cowboy, a vaquero, and he gets the connection. I love his interpretation of this song. This is a song that everybody knows or has at least heard it played in a family venue, if you’ve grown up with any Mexican heritage. The composer, Jose Alfredo Jimenez is considered a great of Mexico’s musical heritage, and this beloved song is called The King, El Rey. Strait sings it with as best an accent as he can muster, and with all his heart, and he cuts straight to my heart, his love, undeniable.
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CA GOP’s Great Conundrum—it needs more women and minorities to win, but would effective outreach violate the principle of equality? Sat, Aug 22,2009

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This Saturday on the program Allan Hoffenblum,publisher of The California Target Book and owner of Allan Hoffenblum & Associates, a political consulting firm based in Los Angeles, joins us to talk about two recent posts he penned in the Fox and Hounds Daily.

The first, titled “California’s Republican Legislators – a White Males’ Club” certainly resonated with me, and the second, “Reach Out, Republicans, Or Lose” in which he references a recent Field Poll, has confirmed my worst nightmare, that we are stuck, and doomed fast, unless we, as a collective group, experience an immediate and dramatic paradigm shift.

Some argue it’s enough to be “pure” in conservative principles. And that wavering from that is what has got us to this point of the brink of quasi-irrelevance, in the first place.

They equate outreach to women and minorities as a surrender of all principles of equality to political correctness and race and gender based preferences.

But some will argue that what leaders are doing, and not doing, now, in the name of “conservative principle,” is not conservative, but is in fact reactionary, self defeating and self destructive.

Liberty and freedom are on the line, and it is the 11th hour. The lines are open. Join us for hot talk radio, Saturday at 10AM PT on CRN, Channel 1

CRN Digital Talk Radio is now available in High Definition audio! Listen to CRN on your local cable or satellite provider, local radio affiliate, mobile device or at CRN! To see where CRN is available in your area click here.
To request CRN Digital Talk Radio in your home or for advertising information, email info@CRNi.net.

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